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AstraEye Labs · Research methods · DELTA
DELTACryptoPatron of Science plan

Open Interest Positioning

Classify each asset from OI vs price matrix as long buildup, short buildup, squeeze risk, or unwind

  1. 01
    What it answers
  2. 02
    How it is computed
  3. !
    Keep in mind
  4. →
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Impersonal research. AstraEye Labs is not a registered investment adviser, does not give financial advice, and does not know your goals or risk tolerance. This research does not account for your individual goals, risk tolerance, financial situation, or other circumstances. Past performance does not predict future results.
01The analysis

What it answers

Answers whether each asset is seeing fresh conviction or forced unwinding behind a price move. It reads per-coin open-interest data covering current OI, 24-hour OI change, last traded price and the direction of the 24-hour price change for your tracked assets. Pairing OI direction with price, it classifies each as long buildup, short buildup, short squeeze, long squeeze, or neutral, and scores how clean the dominant trend is. The classification states which conventional label the last 24 hours fit; it matters because squeeze conditions can drive sharp reversals.

Scientist
DELTA
Asset class
Crypto
Plan
Included from the Patron of Science plan
02The method

How it is computed

Open interest read alongside price: the classical futures heuristic for telling contract creation from contract closure. Note the word heuristic - it is the whole lesson here.

OPEN INTEREST is the number of contracts outstanding, not the number traded - volume is the latter, and confusing them is the standard beginner error. Every contract has a long and a short, so open interest is directionless on its own, and every reduction closes matched exposure on BOTH sides.

THE FOUR COMBINATIONS, stated as what they are consistent with rather than what they prove:

Price up, OI up - consistent with net contract creation during an advance; conventionally labelled long buildup. Price down, OI up - consistent with net creation during a decline; conventionally labelled short buildup. Price up, OI down - consistent with net closure and short covering. Price down, OI down - consistent with net closure and long liquidation.

WHY 'CONSISTENT WITH' AND NOT 'IS'. Aggregate open interest and price cannot tell you which side initiated, whether a closure was voluntary or forced, or whether a liquidation cascade occurred. So a covering pattern is EVIDENCE consistent with a squeeze, not identification of one. Nor is a squeeze self-limiting by construction: a pure covering impulse does exhaust itself, but momentum buyers, fresh liquidations and newly opened positions can extend the move well past that point.

TWO MEASUREMENT TRAPS. First, the unit. Where notional is derived from a BASE-ASSET quantity, price appreciation mechanically raises the reported USD figure even with the contract count unchanged - contaminating precisely the price-versus-OI matrix being read. That does not follow for every contract specification: fixed-USD and inverse contracts behave differently. So the denomination has to be known before anything is interpreted: this analysis reads open interest in US dollars, so on base-asset contracts a price rise can lift it with no new contracts opened. Second, open interest is venue-specific: a figure from one exchange describes that exchange, not the market. This analysis sums every perpetual market the data feed reports for the coin, so it describes those markets together.

THE WINDOW. This analysis classifies on one horizon: the 24-hour change in open interest and the 24-hour change in price, as the data sync reads them when it writes the label. It reads no 7-day change, and 24 hours is short enough for one large participant to dominate. Where the data sync delivers the size of the price change it is published beside the label; otherwise a buildup or squeeze label records only the price's direction, and a neutral label can leave it unknown.

The price read here is the last traded price on the perpetual market with the most open interest on Binance, Bybit or OKX (on any venue when none of those three reports a price), not a mark price: a mark price is an exchange-calculated reference used for unrealised profit and loss and for liquidation, and the data feed carries none.

Keep in mind

The classification and the 0-100 score are our own convention: the run's published rule states the classification's lines, and the score is an AI model's judgement of how clean the dominant trend is, with no formula behind it.

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