Aggregate analyst rating, price target, and estimate revision trends into a consensus score
Answers where Wall Street stands on a stock and whether sentiment is shifting. It reads consensus data (recommendation rating, analyst count, mean price target, 30-day EPS and revenue estimate revisions, upgrade and downgrade counts) and scores 0-100 how supportive the posture is, weighting revision direction and net upgrades. Use it to see the professional consensus at a glance and spot when estimates are moving against or in favor of a name.
Sell-side consensus - useful data with a well-documented and specific bias, which is exactly what makes it worth teaching.
WHAT IT READS. Recommendation rating, analyst count, mean price target, 30-day EPS and revenue estimate revisions, and upgrade and downgrade counts.
THE OPTIMISM BIAS IS THE FIRST THING TO KNOW. Sell-side recommendations have historically skewed heavily toward buy, with sells rare - a pattern documented across decades and attributed to incentives including investment-banking relationships and maintaining access to management. Post-2000 regulation in the US required disclosure of conflicts and separation of research from banking, and the distribution improved without becoming symmetric. The practical consequence: a 'hold' from the sell side has historically carried more negative information than the word suggests, and a rating scale skewed at the source cannot be read as though it were centred.
RATINGS ARE NOT COMPARABLE ACROSS BROKERS. Firms use different scales - some three-point, some five - with different labels and different meanings for the middle. Averaging them into one number requires a mapping the vendor chooses, so a consensus rating is partly an artefact of that mapping.
PRICE TARGETS deserve particular scepticism. Their historical accuracy is poor, dispersion is wide, and a MEAN target hides that - a mean of $100 could be five analysts at $100 or a range from $60 to $140, which are entirely different statements. Targets are also typically 12-month horizons revised as price moves, so they trail as much as they lead.
WHAT IS MORE RELIABLE, and it is the reason this analysis weights revisions. The DIRECTION of change carries more information than the LEVEL, because the bias is largely a level effect: if everyone is systematically optimistic, a move toward less optimistic is still informative. That is also the finding behind revision momentum (Chan, Jegadeesh and Lakonishok, 1996).
ANALYST COUNT is coverage, and coverage is not neutral. Widely covered names have more efficiently priced information; a name covered by two analysts has a consensus that is two people's opinion. Coverage also tracks company size and banking relationships rather than importance.
A STRUCTURAL POINT. Every input here is other people's opinions about a company, not measurements of it. That makes this a sentiment analysis wearing fundamental clothing - genuinely useful for understanding what is already expected, and not evidence about the business.
The 0-100 score and its weighting are our own convention.
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