Compare the guidance in each company's latest earnings release with its previous one: raised, lowered, narrowed, widened, repeated or withdrawn
Answers how a company's own outlook changed between its last two quarterly earnings releases. It reads the earnings releases the company filed with the SEC on Form 8-K, and a language model lists the forward guidance each release states: the metric, the period, the range or figure, and the sentence that states it. Each item is checked against the release's own text, and one whose sentence or figure the release does not contain is dropped. The latest release's guidance is compared with the previous release's for the same metric, period and basis, and each item is named raised, lowered, narrowed, widened, repeated or withdrawn, with the figure it moved from. Guidance the previous release gave that the latest one does not repeat is listed apart and is not called withdrawn unless the release says so. Guidance given only on the conference call, or in material not filed with the release, is not read. It describes what each company said, and it has no score.
Guidance revisions - read from what the company itself filed.
WHAT GUIDANCE IS. A company's own forward-looking statement about expected results: revenue for the coming quarter, earnings per share for the year, a margin range. It comes from inside the business, from people with information nobody outside has, which is why a change in it - particularly a cut - is among the most closely watched events in equity analysis.
WHAT IT READS. The earnings releases each company files with the SEC on Form 8-K when it reports a quarter: the latest one, and the one filed at least two months before it, which is the previous quarter's. A filing weeks apart from the latest, such as a deliveries update, is not the previous quarter's release.
WHY A MODEL, AND HOW IT IS CHECKED. 'We now expect revenue of $5.2 to $5.6 billion' and 'last year we expected $5.0 billion' share vocabulary and mean different things; telling guidance from a reported result is a matter of reading the sentence. So a language model lists the guidance each release states, with the sentence that states it. Code then checks what code can check: the sentence must appear in the release, and every figure must appear in that sentence. An item that fails either check is dropped rather than published.
HOW A CHANGE IS NAMED. Items are compared only when the metric, the period, the segment and the basis (adjusted or GAAP) match. A range whose midpoint rose with neither end falling was raised, and the reverse lowered; one whose ends both moved inward was narrowed, and outward widened; the same figures again are repeated, or reaffirmed when the release says so in its own words. Guidance for a period the previous release did not guide is new.
NOT REPEATED IS NOT WITHDRAWN. Companies often stop restating quarterly guidance once the quarter has been reported, or move it to the call. An item the previous release gave and the latest does not repeat is listed apart; it is called withdrawn only when the release says so.
WHAT IT MISSES. Guidance given only on the conference call or in slides that are not filed; outlook stated in words with no figure; and companies that file their results on Form 6-K, as many foreign issuers do. A company that gives no guidance is said to state none.
WHAT A REVISION DOES AND DOES NOT TELL YOU. Guidance is a forecast and is often conservative, so a raise can reflect a cautious starting point as much as a better business, and a reaffirmation against expectations of a cut can matter more than a raise. It is management's own reading, not a measurement.
The comparison rules are our own convention. There is no score.
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