Macro Alignment Check

WHAT IT READS. For equities, four scored inputs: the S&P 500 constituent aggregate market-cap change over 1 day and over 7 days, VIX, and the 2s10s yield curve. For crypto, two: the 24-hour total crypto market-cap change and Bitcoin dominance. Rates, Fed liquidity, M2, money-market funds, the dollar index, concentration, sector shares, and ETH and altcoin dominance are read as context and do not enter either rule.

THE EQUITY RULE. Each input scores +1, -1 or 0: the 1-day change +1 above +1.5% and -1 below -1.5%; the 7-day change +1 above +3% and -1 below -3%; VIX +1 below 15 and -1 above 25; the curve -1 when inverted, below zero. A positive curve is the norm, so it scores 0, never +1. The scores sum to risk-on above zero, risk-off below zero and neutral at exactly zero, and an input that was not available adds nothing. These are the inputs and cutoffs FELIX's liquidity regime uses for equities, so the two analyses cannot read the same VIX two ways.

THE CRYPTO RULE. Risk-off when the 24-hour total market-cap change is below -5%; risk-on when it is above +5% and Bitcoin dominance is below 50%; neutral otherwise.

EVERY RESULT SHOWS ITS WORK. Each regime is published with its inputs, the cutoff each one crossed and the regime that follows. A regime the inputs cannot decide is reported as unavailable, never as neutral. Equities and crypto are kept apart because they are separate markets, and one blended label would describe neither.

WHAT DOMINANCE ACTUALLY IS. Bitcoin's market capitalisation as a share of the total. It is a RATIO, and the single most useful habit with any ratio is to ask which side moved. Dominance rises when Bitcoin outperforms - and equally when altcoins fall harder in a decline, when a large altcoin is delisted or reclassified, or when the index's universe changes. It is not a flow measure and nothing about it says capital moved anywhere.

AND IT IS DIRECTIONALLY AMBIGUOUS. Rising dominance is read as risk-off, a flight to the largest asset. It is equally consistent with a Bitcoin-led bull market. The same reading supports both, so any classifier built on it is encoding a choice about which story to believe. That is why the rule here reads dominance only as a level that gates risk-on - a 24-hour rise above 5% counts as risk-on only while Bitcoin is under half the total market - and never as rising or falling: one level carries no direction.

WHY 'RISK-ON' AND 'RISK-OFF' ARE BORROWED TERMS. In macro they describe capital moving between genuinely different risk classes - equities against government bonds. Within crypto the whole universe is risk-on by any external standard, so these labels describe relative movement inside one asset class. Useful, and much narrower than the words imply. On either side the label summarises a few market-wide readings; it is not a forecast.

WHAT IT DOES NOT SAY. The regime describes market-wide conditions. It does not judge whether those conditions suit any holding, sector or selection.