Estimate treasury runway, native-token concentration, and 60%-price-decline vulnerability
Answers how long a DAO can fund operations before its war chest runs dry. It reads a SELF-PRODUCED on-chain treasury value - each protocol's governance-controlled addresses, identified from its own governance documentation and read directly on chain - and estimates monthly burn from protocol revenue, dividing to get runway in months, then adds a stress test for a 60% treasury decline plus a native-token concentration check from supply float. Treasury has no canonical on-chain registry the way TVL does, so coverage extends only to protocols whose addresses have been identified and verified; assets without one report the treasury as unavailable rather than guessing. It labels each safe (over 36 months), watch (over 12), or critical. Use it to flag protocols whose funding could force token sales or cutbacks.
Runway - a startup metric applied to a DAO, and the two inputs that make it fragile.
THE CALCULATION. Treasury value divided by monthly burn, giving months of funding. It is the oldest metric in venture finance, and its logic holds under stated conditions: AT THE CURRENT NET BURN, with asset values unchanged and no new financing or revenue improvement, reserves imply a finite life. Every one of those conditions is a variable an organisation can act on, which is why runway is a prompt rather than a prediction.
WHY IT MATTERS PARTICULARLY FOR A PROTOCOL. A DAO running short must either cut development or SELL TREASURY ASSETS - and its treasury is frequently held largely in its own token. That is the mechanism worth understanding: forced selling into a weak market, of the very asset whose weakness caused the shortfall, is a reflexive loop rather than an ordinary cash problem.
WHICH IS WHY THE NATIVE-TOKEN CONCENTRATION CHECK IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FIELD HERE. A treasury denominated in the protocol's own token is not a reserve in the sense the runway calculation assumes. Its value falls exactly when it is needed, so runway measured in dollars overstates resilience precisely in the scenario that matters. A treasury in stablecoins and a treasury of the same dollar value in the native token are entirely different assets, and the 60% stress test is an attempt to price that difference.
BURN ESTIMATED FROM PROTOCOL REVENUE is the weaker input, and be clear about what it is: revenue is not expenditure. A DAO's real costs are contributor compensation, grants, audits, infrastructure and legal work - and those are governance decisions rather than a function of revenue. Estimating burn from revenue assumes a relationship that need not hold, and it can move in the wrong direction: a protocol whose revenue collapses does not automatically stop spending.
TREASURY VALUE IS SELF-PRODUCED HERE, read from each protocol's governance-controlled addresses on chain. That is a real strength - it is measured rather than reported - and it carries a specific limit: a treasury has no canonical on-chain registry the way a lending pool does, since each DAO's funds live wherever its governance put them. Coverage extends only to protocols whose addresses have been identified and verified, and an asset without one reports the treasury as unavailable rather than guessing. That is the right failure mode.
RUNWAY IS A SNAPSHOT EXTRAPOLATION. It assumes today's burn and today's treasury value continue, and both move.
The safe, watch and critical thresholds and the 60% stress magnitude are our own convention.
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